Floods are caused by excessive rainfall but flood damage & loss of life is caused by poor management. The National Disaster Management Agency is not interested in prevention or reduction of losses due to flooding but only in post flood rescue & relief. We have zero capability to issue warnings for evacuation. We have no legislation for dam safety & operations of reservoirs.

Each case of flooding happens for a different reason but lack of Legislation, poor Planning & lack of Warning Systems is common in all cases of flooding. Srinagar floods were caused due to negligence of the authorities. The report commissioned by Central Water Commission after Srinagar floods is a secret document because the authorities of CWC are not interested in learning from mistakes of the past & improving their systems. They are only interested in cover up & blame game.

The appraisal report of 2008 floods in India, published in 2010 by CWC, said that during the flood season 2008, in all, 6691 flood forecasts were issued by the DIrectorate of CWC with an accuracy level exceeding 97.95%. Clearly CWC claims that flood forecasting in India is a highly accurate but in Flood Forecasting techniques & standards in India are at a very primitive stage. By world standards the work that CWC does in relation to real time flood forecasting would not even quality to be called Real time Flood Forecasting. The accuracy level of 97.95% is an illusion.

One feature that is important in Real Time Flood Forecasting is the ‘Lead Time’ of the forecast. The lead time means how much in advance the forecast is made. Accuracy of a forecast depends on the Lead Time. If CWC can say a week in advance that there will be a flood of X magnitude it is of immense use to authorities compared to if CWC says the same thing an hour in advance. Within a decreasing lead time, the accuracy of forecast increases but its utility decreases. Even Sadhu’s sitting on the banks of Ganges can make a good short time lead forecast. CWC in the entire Appraisal Report, has made no reference to the Lead Time.

Central Water Commission says that through its twenty flood forecasting divisions it issues forecasts to various user agencies, which includes various civil/engineering agencies of the States/ Central Governments such as Irrigation! Revenue/ Railways/ public undertakings and Dam & Barrage Authorities/ District Magistrates/ Sub Divisional Officers besides the Defence Authorities involved in the flood loss mitigation work. The question arises as to why National Disaster Management Authority ( NDMA ) is not included in this list. Why Emergency Response Administrations/ Rescue Services / Radio Stations etc. are not included ? It is because CWC does not see any function for its forecasts. For CWC forecasting is a bureaucratic exercise that must be done to earn a salary. It is interesting to note that CWC does not see any role of Rainfall Estimation or Rainfall Forecasting in Real Time Forecasting of Floods. CWC’s Flood Forecasting Division has no connection with the Meteorology or Meteorological Office for rainfall forecasts. Understanding of CWC, as far as flood forecasting is concerned is very poor.

When people of J&K asked their Government as to why the state had failed to issue flood warning the state administration quickly passed on the buck to CWC. On the other hand CWC officials were very quick in saying that flood forecasting & flood management is a state subject. It is highly regrettable that officials of CWC do not own their mistakes gracefully & make an effort to improve. The systems that exist in CWC for flood forecasting are primitive. Officers of the Directorate are not experts in flood forecasting. They are in positions of authority because of seniority in service & not because of seniority in expertise or experience.

Srinagar Floods were caused due to negligence of the authorities. The report commissioned by CWC after Srinagar Floods is a secret document obviously to cover up the mistakes. I do not understand why that is the case?

Induced Flooding: It is very common for fishermen in India to loose their valuables because water levels in the river where are working/living increases suddenly. This is not because of excessive rainfall but because authorities have released water from an upstream reservoir without any warning. When floods are caused by excessive, uncontrolled and/or unplanned releases from reservoirs we can call this type of flooding induced flooding. Some time there is also loss of life because of induced flooding. It is not uncommon in India.

Cascading reservoirs: With so many reservoirs being built, for example on the Ganges in Uttarakhand, and each reservoir is owned & operated by a private operators then it is natural for a operator to fill his reservoir to his maximum possible capacity. If a reservoir downstream is full & the upstream reservoir suddenly releases a flood wave then the down stream reservoir will not be able to accommodate the flood wave. There is no legislation in India to say how much capacity each reservoir operator must leave open in his/her reservoir to accommodate a flood wave. A safe operating policy is clearly linked with the methodology of forecasting inflows into reservoirs. CWC is given the responsibility to do this kind of work in the Narmada basin but what they do is simply laughable.